Risk Disclosure

Status: Human-voice rewrite, pending counsel review. Document version: 2026.05.01 Last updated: 2026-05-01 Effective date: 2026-05-01

What this means in plain English: Trading is risky. We send you ideas; you decide whether to act on them. We are not your broker, your adviser, or your fund manager. If a signal loses money, that loss is yours. Read the rest before you place a trade.

This Risk Disclosure is part of the Terms of Service. You agree to it when you create an account, and again the first time you log in. We also show a short version of it inside the app every time you accept a signal.

It is short on purpose. Read it.

1. The plain-language summary

You can lose money trading. We show you ideas, model output, and analytics. We do not give you advice. You decide what to trade, when to trade, how big to trade, and whether to trade at all. We are not a broker, not an adviser, and not a fund. The numbers we show you describe what models did in the past, not what they will do next.

If, after reading this, you are not comfortable with that, do not trade on the Service.

2. The longer version

2.1. We are a publisher, not an adviser

Ikaay Capital Pte Ltd publishes financial information. We are not a registered investment adviser, broker-dealer, financial planner, fund manager, or fiduciary.

We do not know:

• Your circumstances.
• Your tax position.
• What other investments you hold.
• How a trade fits the rest of your portfolio.

Because we do not know any of that, we cannot give you advice that is right for you. We do not try to.

In countries where our activity could be regulated (for example, India under the SEBI Research Analyst Regulations 2014, or Singapore under the Financial Advisers Act 2001), we operate strictly inside the publisher and non-personalized exemptions. If you ask "should I buy X for my portfolio?", we will not answer.

2.2. Past performance does not guarantee future results

Every performance number on the Service — backtest results, simulated returns, Sharpe ratios, profit factors, win rates, drawdowns — describes things that already happened, or things a model would have done if it had run on past data. None of it predicts what will happen next.

This is not a hedge. It is the literal truth.

The signals we publish did one thing in the past. They may do something completely different in the future. In our backtests they have lost money for hundreds of bars in a row. They will do that again at some point.

Worst-case example: suppose our backtest shows a 60% win rate over the last three years. You take 20 trades next month and lose 14 of them. Both can be true. A long-run average tells you nothing about any particular month, week, or trade.

2.3. Hypothetical and backtested results have built-in limits

When we show you a backtest or simulation, we ran our model against historical data. No money changed hands. No order touched a real exchange. That kind of result has limits you need to know about:

• (a) No actual trades. Hypothetical trades were not executed. The simulator may understate or overstate the impact of liquidity, slippage, fill probability, and the price impact of your own trade.
• (b) Costs. If a backtest does not subtract commissions, exchange fees, financing costs, or the bid-ask spread, the gross result is higher than what a real account would have earned. When we publish a backtest, we say whether costs are included. If they are not, we say so on the chart.
• (c) Hindsight bias. A backtest is built with the benefit of hindsight. A model that was selected because it looked good on past data may not work the same way going forward.
• (d) Survivorship bias. A historical universe of "currently listed" symbols leaves out the companies that delisted or went bankrupt. The backtest then understates how often the strategy picked something that died.
• (e) No psychology. A backtest does not capture your real reaction to a 30% drawdown. Real traders close at the worst moment, take time off, or change strategy. Backtests just keep going.

For commodity-futures-adjacent backtests, we follow the substance of CFTC Rule 4.41(b), even though Ikaay Capital is not currently within the CFTC's regulatory scope. The full disclosure that travels with every backtested chart lives in hypothetical_performance_disclosure.md.

2.4. The Service runs on algorithms; algorithms are imperfect

The Service uses statistical models, machine learning, and signal-processing methods. The Engine has equation ensembles, change-point detectors, regime classifiers, factor models, and Bayesian-update components. None of them is infallible.

• Models drift.
• Models overfit.
• Models say nothing useful about tail events they have never seen.

The Engine displays its own confidence and quality grades. Those grades come from models too. They can be wrong. We try to keep them calibrated and honest. We cannot promise they will be either, on any given day.

When we change a model, we publish a note. We do not silently retune.

2.5. Trading decisions are yours

Your trading decisions are yours alone. You agree that you take full responsibility for every order you place, no matter what informed it. Before you act, you agree to consider:

• Your investment goals.
• Your trading experience.
• Your ability to absorb losses.

You decide whether to trade a signal, what size to trade, what stop-loss to use, what target to use, and whether the trade fits your portfolio. The Engine does not size trades for you. It cannot know what your account can afford.

We strongly suggest you talk to a qualified, licensed financial professional before any investment decision, especially in an asset class you do not know well.

2.6. Your capital is at risk

With any investment, your capital is at risk. Positions can go down as well as up. You may lose part or all of what you put in.

With leveraged products — futures, contracts for difference, written options, margin trading, certain leveraged ETFs — you can lose more than you put in.

• Do not trade with money you cannot afford to lose.
• Do not borrow money to trade on signals from this Service.

2.7. Specific asset-class risks

• (a) Equities. Stock prices can fall to zero. Companies can be delisted, suspended, or go bankrupt with little warning.
• (b) FX / currency. Exchange rates move. If a signal is on an instrument priced in a currency you do not hold, the FX move can swamp the signal's edge.
• (c) Interest rates. Rate moves affect bond prices, equity valuations, and the cost of carrying leveraged positions.
• (d) Liquidity. Some symbols trade thin. A signal may be uneconomic to enter or exit at the price we display.
• (e) Counterparties. Brokers, exchanges, and clearers can fail. We do not stand between you and your broker.
• (f) Technology. Internet outages, broker outages, exchange halts, our own outages, missed alerts, delayed data, and bugs in our code can all hurt you. We try to minimise these. We cannot eliminate them. The Service is provided "as is".
• (g) Crypto. Crypto is high-risk and may lose all of its value. It is not protected by deposit insurance and is, in many places, lightly regulated.
• (h) Leveraged ETFs. Daily-rebalanced leveraged ETFs (TQQQ, SQQQ, UPRO, etc.) decay over time relative to the underlying when held through choppy markets. You can be right on direction and still lose money.

2.8. Country-specific warnings

• (a) Where the Service is offered. The Service is offered from Singapore. The fact that it reaches your country is not an offer or a solicitation in any place where that would be unlawful.

• (b) United Kingdom — crypto. If we ever promote a crypto-asset signal product to a UK retail customer, we will display the FCA-mandated risk warning ("Don't invest unless you're prepared to lose all the money you invest. This is a high-risk investment and you should not expect to be protected if something goes wrong.") with the cooling-off period and appropriateness assessment required by FCA PS23/6.

• (c) United Kingdom — leveraged products / CFDs. We do not sell CFDs, spread bets, or rolling spot FX. If we ever introduce them, we will display the FCA-mandated risk warning with the firm-specific loss percentage updated quarterly.

• (d) India — SEBI / AMFI mandated phrasing (verbatim, do not paraphrase):

  Investments in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing. For any reference to mutual funds: Mutual fund investments are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing. Past performance is never a guarantee of the same future results.

• (e) Singapore. The Service does not provide a "financial advisory service" within the meaning of the Financial Advisers Act 2001. If you are unsure, contact the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

The country-specific addenda live in jurisdiction_notes.md.

2.9. Data and timing

• (a) Real-time data is not always real-time. Prices can be delayed by milliseconds, seconds, or minutes depending on the source. End-of-day data can be hours late. When we cannot confirm that a price is fresh, we mark it as delayed or stale and may suppress signals on that symbol until fresh data resumes.

• (b) Alerts are best-effort. Scheduled scans, alerts, and notifications go out as soon as they can. Email, Telegram, and webhook delivery can be late by minutes because of downstream provider issues. We do not guarantee that a signal reaches you in time to trade it.

• (c) Re-runs may differ. Running the same model on the same symbol later the same day can produce different output as new data arrives. We do not retroactively edit prior signals.

2.10. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship

Using the Service does not make Ikaay Capital your fiduciary, your adviser, your broker, or your agent. We do not act in your interest as if it were ours. We owe you no duty of care, loyalty, or skill beyond what is set out in our Terms of Service and what cannot be excluded by law.

2.11. Limitation of liability

Our liability is limited under section 12 of the Terms of Service. To the extent the law allows, we are not liable for trading losses. Read it.

3. The very short version (shown in the in-app trade-acceptance dialog)

By proceeding with this signal you confirm: you have used your own judgment; this signal is algorithmic guidance, not financial advice; past performance does not guarantee future results; your capital is at risk; and you take full responsibility for the trade and any profit or loss.

4. The sign-up consent text

I have read the Risk Disclosure and the Terms of Service. I understand that the signals and analytics on this Service are for information and education only, that they are not personalized financial advice, that past performance is no guarantee of future results, that my capital is at risk, and that I will use my own judgment on every trading decision.

Change log

Pattern provenance

• §2.1 publisher posture: Stansberry Research /legal/legal-notices ("Stansberry Research is a publisher of financial information, not an investment adviser") + Smallcase ("technology provider, not intermediary").
• §2.2 past-performance phrasing: Stansberry verbatim "We make no representation that any customer will or is likely to achieve similar results."
• §2.3 hypothetical-performance limitations: pattern modelled on CFTC Rule 4.41(b), Stansberry, Zacks (the cost-exclusion paragraph), Tickeron, Streak (the named-cause list of slippage / latency / liquidity / rejections is Streak's contribution).
• §2.5 decisions are yours: Motley Fool TOS verbatim "your investment decisions rest squarely with you."
• §2.6 capital-at-risk: Composer's homepage line ("With any investment, your capital is at risk.") with "as well as up" continuation.
• §2.7(g) crypto: Glassnode TOS ALL-CAPS ("ANY CRYPTOCURRENCY IS A HIGH-RISK INVESTMENT, WHICH MAY RESULT IN TOTAL LOSS OF ITS VALUE") softened to sentence case.
• §2.8(b) FCA crypto warning: verbatim FCA PS23/6 mandated phrase. Reproduce exactly when promoting crypto signals to UK retail.
• §2.8(d) SEBI / AMFI phrases: verbatim mandated phrases.